Professor that accurately guess every united state president because 1982 says Joe Biden will certainly have far-ranging advantages if he runs again


American University’s identified professor of history, Alan Lichtman, shocked the people when he accurately predicted that Donald Trump would certainly defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

You are watching: Allan lichtman keys to the white house

During a Zoom interview through The National, Prof Lichtman held up a note he received from mr Trump in 2016 soon after the prediction concerned fruition.

“Professor, congrats, an excellent call,” the reads, in huge letters composed in marker through Mr Trump’s signature.

This time around, making use of his 13 trends or keys system to predict the White house winner, he effectively predicted a Joe Biden victory.

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Professor with perfect prediction record forecasts Donald trump loss...
As yet, the professor who has accurately predicted the united state presidential contest due to the fact that 1982 – once he tipped Ronald Reagan to win in 1984 – has actually not received any type of congratulatory keep in mind from president Trump.

“No, and I don’t mean to,” Prof Lichtman said. “Although i’m still waiting to check out if I obtain a nice keep in mind from Joe Biden.”

Mr Lichtman’s model looks in ~ several factors in predicting a winner, consisting of party mandate, third-party challenge, social unrest, incumbency and also charisma.

“I guess a Biden success in the start of respectable of this year based upon mine prediction system that has been right ever because I guess Ronald Reagan’s election in April the 1982,” he said. “It’s a non-partisan system.”

What surprised Lichtman?

On choice night external the White House, a really partisan crowd of demonstrators plainly expected grandfather Biden to be claimed the winner in a clean landslide, but they would have to wait for numerous thousands that mail-in ballots to it is in counted throughout the country.


Look, I'm 73 years old and I've to be doing this predictions for 40 years, and also I gain butterflies in mine stomach every 4 years
Mr Lichtman claimed although this election was unconventional since of the Covid-19 pandemic and several various other factors, that did not flinch on election night when it involved his forecast of a Biden victory, while likewise acknowledging the mercurial nature of voters.

“Look, i’m 73 years old and I’ve to be doing these predictions because that 40 years, and also I gain butterflies in mine stomach every four years,” the said.

“I continuously reaffirmed this prediction, including when the votes started to come in and also it looked prefer Donald Trump might be re-elected, however I construed that no election was last until all the votes were counted, and also in most states the mail-in ballots, which were overwhelmingly Democratic, would be counted last."

Sure enough, mr Biden secured sufficient electoral votes to become president-elect, and additionally won the well-known vote by about five million ballots.

Mr Lichtman, however, did speak he to be surprised through several elements of the election.

“First of every the magnitude of the turnout. This is a great tribute come the American world that they completed a document turnout in percentages terms, the highest possible turnout because 1960,” the said. “That was surprising in the middle of the worst pandemic in 100 years.”

Mr Lichtman noted that both candidates managed to rotate out significantly more voters than expected, and also that ultimately, mr Biden’s turnout procedure surprised many.

“Not only is Biden ~ above track for 306 electoral university votes, the same that Donald Trump obtained last time when he referred to as it a landslide, but Biden is additionally on his means to a thumping popular vote success of five million famous votes or more,” that said.

Prof Lichtman was additionally surprised by the disconnect between the White home race compared with the elections because that the Senate, residence of Representatives and state legislatures.

“On the various other hand, republicans did exceptionally well in elections for united state Congress and actually gained seats as soon as all the pollsters claimed they would lose seats, and they did very well in state legislative elections.”

Trump’s reaction to defeat "the worst minute in us presidential history"

Prof Lichtman was quite taken aback by exactly how Mr Trump tackled the electoral defeat.


Every indication, including statements native Republican choice officials throughout the country, indicate that this was a remarkable smooth, full and fair election, and also Donald Trump's obstacles are entirely baseless, frivolous and also dangerous
“I think what’s taken place with Donald Trump since the election represents the worst minute in united state presidential history,” grandfather Lichtman said, comparing that with how previous incumbents have actually reacted.

“We have actually never had a shedding president, or for that matter, any type of losing candidate, therefore openly and falsely and dangerously assault the structures of ours democracy. He is baselessly accusing the various other side of widespread fraud once in truth there was no together fraud.”

Prof Lichtman additionally said that Mr Trump’s behaviour to be being allowed by those who work straight for him, and also those that serve in several of the greatest positions of strength for the Republican Party, such as Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell

“He’s the good enabler, saying ‘oh the not inexplicable to have actually all these challenges’, yet it is unusual,” Prof Lichtman said. “It’s never ever happened before; no shedding candidate has ever initiated widespread obstacles to one election choose this, particularly when these obstacles have for sure no basis in fact.

“Every indication, consisting of statements native Republican election officials throughout the country, suggest that this to be a remarkable smooth, full and fair election, and also Donald Trump’s difficulties are entirely baseless, frivolous and dangerous,” that said.

What is Lichtman"s prediction for 2024?

Prof Lichtman, who details his strategy for predicting the White home winner in his book, Predicting the next President: The keys to the White House, stated although it is very early, it would certainly strongly be to the autonomous party"s advantage if mr Biden ran for re-election in 2024.

“With the sitting president to run again, you’re no going to have actually a large internal party fight, it is a significant key, and you’re i can not qualify to have actually a large third-party movement. It"s also precious noting the Biden will certainly probably achieve major policy alters from the trump administration,” that said.


It doesn't look prefer the Republicans have anyone who fulfils the 'challenge charisma key', the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, prefer Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan
There room some, however, who see Mr Biden’s age, he is 77, together an obstacle to a 2nd term.

Although grandfather Biden has not indicated whether or not he plans to operation for re-election, over there is ample speculation the he can not.

If that is the case, Prof Lichtman says it will be a tougher trip for Democrats.

“You shed the incumbency crucial right turn off the top, and you’re much much more likely to have actually an internal party battle for who will be the nominee to take over from Joe Biden,” that said.

Conversely, return he quit just brief of making a prediction, mr Lichtman believes the 2024 presidential vote can be problematic for the Republican party.

“It no look favor the Republicans have actually anyone who fulfils the ‘challenge charisma key’, the once-in-a-generation inspirational candidate, choose Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan,” he said, pointing to the potential because that a strength vacuum in the party.

How walk Lichtman"s 13 keys model work?

The 13 keys come the White House is an table of contents of true or false responses come a collection of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.

"True" answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, if "false" answer favour the challenger.

When six or an ext of the statements space false, the incumbent party is predicted come lose.

Lichtman"s 13 secrets to the White House:

Party mandate: after ~ the midterm vote the incumbent party holds much more seats in the US House of Representatives than it go after the vault midterm elections.Contest: The candidate is nominated top top the an initial ballot and also wins at least two-thirds that the delegate votes.Incumbency: The sit president is the party candidate.Third party: A third-party candidate wins at the very least 5 percent the the well-known vote.Short-term economy: The national Bureau of economic Research has either not asserted a recession, or has claimed it over prior to the election.Long-term economy: real per-capita financial growth throughout the term equates to or above the average growth during the previous two terms.Policy change: The management achieves a major policy change during the term comparable to the brand-new Deal or the first-term Reagan Revolution.Social unrest: over there is no society unrest during the term the is comparable to the turmoils of the post-civil war reconstruction or of the 1960s, and is continual or raises deep concerns around the unraveling of society.Scandal: over there is no large recognition the a scandal that straight touches top top the presidentForeign or army failure: over there is no significant failure during the term similar to Pearl harbor or the Iran hostage situation that shows up to significantly undermine America"s national interests or threaten its was standing in the world.Foreign or military success: there is a significant success throughout the term equivalent to the win of people War II or the Camp David Accords that significantly advancements America"s national interests or its was standing in the world.Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is a nationwide hero comparable to Ulysses give or Dwight Eisenhower or is one inspirational candidate similar to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

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Challenger charisma: The challenger party candidate is not a national hero equivalent to Ulysses give or Dwight Eisenhower and also is no an inspirational candidate equivalent to Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.

- Source: Allan J. Lichtman, The Thirteen tricks to the Presidency