Should farming Commissioner Nikki Fried run for Florida Governor, she beginning in a statistics tie with Gov. Ron DeSantis.

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That’s according to a new survey by St. Pete Polls, commissioned specifically for Florida Politics.

The poll discovered the incumbent Republican Governor and the potential autonomous challenger both taking around 45% the the vote. A near look reflects DeSantis win 45.2% to Fried’s 44.6%, a difference far smaller sized than the survey’s 2.2% margin the error.

The poll find DeSantis hold 76% Republican support, while Fried has actually less than 72% among Democrats, showing the incumbent performing far better with his very own base. However 46% of independents donate Fried, compared to 42% who like DeSantis.

As one of the first publicly released head-to-head polls top top the potential matchup, the results suggest one more nail-biter election in Florida’s future.

FiveThirtyEight and also RealClearPolitics both encompass results native St. Pete Polls surveys in their nationally watched polling aggregates.

The just other poll taken this year had by either outfit is a Mason-Dixon poll earlier this month that verified DeSantis v a an ext comfortable 9-percentage-point lead on Fried; the exact same poll discovered DeSantis increase 11 point out in a head-to-head with democratic U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist.

Fried’s solid performance in this poll came regardless of St. Pete Polls pollsters predicting better Republican turnout in 2022.

The sample for the survey, taken March 22-24, broke down come 38.2% Republicans, 37.5% Democrats, and 24.2% independents.

Fried, the only Democrat now holding statewide office in Florida, has actually openly recognized for months she may an obstacle DeSantis’ reelection. Both officials were an initial elected to their present office in 2018 — and both only after statewide recounts confirmed the results of their respective races.

DeSantis defeated then-Tallahassee market Andrew Gillum by 33,684 votes, or 0.4 percentage points, in the last count. Fried beat then-state Rep. Matt Caldwell by a just 6,753 votes, much less than 0.1 portion points.

Those outcomes bolstered Florida’s reputation together a closely divided state. But Florida additionally went to Donald Trump in 2020 in spite of Democrat Joe Biden flipping several other battlegrounds the Republican incumbent winner in 2016. That was one of three says where Republicans improved performance over 2016. And also notably, the state broke largely — if narrowly — because that the GOP in 2018 because that both the Governor’s race and a an essential Senate contest between then incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson and also now-Sen. Rick Scott.

In 2022, one more Senate seat, this one held by incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, will additionally be ~ above the ballot.

DeSantis has also emerged as a national figure during the coronavirus pandemic, painting himself together an anti-lockdown conservative and also faring fine in some really early primary polling because that the 2024 race for President, consisting of an Echelon Insights poll exit Wednesday.

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But that has likewise drawn interest among Democrats who desire to cut that run off at the happen by defeating the governor in his home state in 2022.

StPetePolls 2021 State Gov … by Jacob Ogles

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Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered national politics in Florida because 2000 for regional outlets consisting of SRQ magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in fort Myers and also The day-to-day Commercial in Leesburg. His work-related has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Occasions like SRQ’s where The Votes are workshops make Ogles among Southwest Florida’s most respected politics analysts, and also outlets favor WWSB abc 7 and also WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He deserve to be got to at