Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) speaks with President Donald trumped at an occasion in July 2020. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
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2021 Election: complete coverage and analysisArrowRight


The 2021 election reinforced the difficult path the lies ahead because that Democrats in their efforts to store unified control of Washington, an especially with president Biden’s numbers having actually declined. And also the jockeying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination started long ago.

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Below space our extremely at an early stage rankings of who could be in the to run for it — with the vital caveat that many or all of the first nine probably don’t operation if No. 1 does. As usual, this is in order of exactly how likely your nomination would certainly seem come be.


Also mentioned: stack Scott, Kristi L. Noem, josh Hawley, glen Youngkin, Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, Tom Cotton


10. Mike Pompeo: couple of have made their designs on possibly running because that president as apparent as Trump’s previous secretary of state and CIA director. Pompeo’s closing days together the nation’s optimal diplomat were extensively specialized to arguing that his tenure to be a success, often using main resources in a patently political means (a commonwealth investigation uncovered just this week that Pompeo violated the flower Act for similar conduct). Pompeo’s office insisted recently that Pompeo was just joking when he argued he would certainly run nevertheless of previous president Donald Trump’s plans. Yet we should most likely take the as evidence that he’s quite anxious to carry out it. The big question v Pompeo is just exactly how compelling he actually is together a candidate.


9. Greg Abbott: The Texas governor is just one of two big-state governors, in addition to Florida’s Ron DeSantis, who have actually gone to an excellent lengths to establish their Trump-era-conservative bona fides — together opposed to much more traditionally conservative ones. This has affiliated going more than republic usually perform while wielding governmental strength to struggle coronavirus restrictions and combat huge Tech. Because that now, though, DeSantis is the non-Trump darling of the movement.


8. Chris Christie: there is precious little evidence the the GOP will certainly turn against Trumpism at any time soon; everyone betting top top that ensuing by 2024 had better get some exceptionally favorable odds. Yet if yes one nationwide player who might drive that message, it could be former brand-new Jersey governor Christie, that has talked out more and an ext against the chairman he so aided in 2016. If Christie ran in his very own right in 2016 when his share was an especially low in the party — and it panned out accordingly — he’s also demonstrated how great he deserve to be politically once things align because that him.


Former new Jersey governor chris Christie said a crowd in las Vegas top top Nov. 6 to look for leaders with “a setup for tomorrow, not a grievance around yesterday.” (The Washington Post)

7. Donald trump Jr.: If the elder Trump no run and also the GOP base continues to place such a high premium top top owning the libs over governing chops, virtually nobody else on this list has presented such an capability to give it what that wants. Trump card Jr. Is also completely untested as an yes, really candidate, however so was a particular family member.


6. Ted Cruz speak of make owning-the-libs and trolling your organizing principle, Cruz has taken fairly the turn this year. The Texas senator has tried ridiculously difficult to shot to to fill the void left by the previous president’s lack from Twitter — often with the same neglect for facts. The concern as ever before with Cruz is even if it is anyone really likes that enough, and also whether the Trump basic would ever before trust the after what he traction at the 2016 convention.


5. Mike Pence: Pence’s opportunities to be a post-Trump favourite for the nomination took a significant shot in January, as soon as he declined to go along with Trump and also lawyer john Eastman’s plot to try to overturn the choice on Jan. 6. And Pence appeared to recognize the fateful decision he was embarking upon, reportedly telling fellow Indianan and also former vice chairman Dan Quayle, “You don’t understand the position I’m in.” That place was one of a guy who loyally and often sycophantically stood by trumped for four years, while no necessarily aligning through Trump on more controversial matters. And also it appeared to work-related for the — until it utterly fell apart in the closeup of the door days and also Trump supporters began chanting “Hang Mike Pence.” he is still a former vice president, however one who could sure use the form of party-wide turning of the web page that Christie needs.


4. Tim Scott: virtually nobody has flown in ~ the radar, while likewise earning plaudits for memorable moments, and the senator from southern Carolina. His 2020 convention decided was one of the most well-received, without talk much around Trump or delving too much into the divisive problems of the day. While others have actually navigated this era in decidedly uneven ways, Scott would enter the 2024 gyeongju with more of a opportunity to craft his very own message quite than having actually to relive old battles. The drawback right here is the the spotlight have the right to be harsh, and also Scott doesn’t have actually as lot experience with it.


3. Nikki Haley: Haley is the biggest enigma on this list. She has both prove a striking ability to navigate hard political waters — think the Confederate flag dispute in south Carolina when she was branch — while also seeming to have actually no idea just how she truly intends to proceed. This year has been chock full of her providing mixed signal on what she yes, really thinks of Trump and also whether the party need to hew to Trump’s vision for it. There’s something to be claimed for make the efforts to be all things to all people, sure; yet it’s been gobsmacking. Setting that aside, as Trump’s ambassador come the unified Nations, she was amongst the most famous officials in the administration and the obviously has actually a large upside.


2. Ron DeSantis: If yes no Trump, and also there’s a desire for a Trumpism-without-Trump (and without one more Trump) candidate, DeSantis is that male right now — and also it’s not really close. His document as Florida’s governor offers that movement pretty much whatever it wants: A guy with big-state executive endure who loves to joust v the left and also has found himself (justifiably) scrutinized through the media. If he’s plainly in a tier that his own right now, though, occasionally it’s not that hard to tell indigenous his publicly appearances the he’s simply a couple years gotten rid of from gift a backbencher in the U.S. House.

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1. Donald Trump: If the runs, he’s the overwhelming favorite, and most or every one of the over don’t run versus him, since what’s the point? A strong bulk of Republicans desire him to operation again, and also about fifty percent say lock would assistance him from the start. You’d likely see what you observed in 2020, which to be a couple semi-reputable persons tossing their name in the cap in really hopes of make a allude or that perhaps he implodes.